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Probabilistic Design for Reliability (PDfR) in Electronics and Photonics

Date

2017-07-19

Location

Webinar - Online

Contact

Denise Manning – d.manning@ieee.org

Presenter

Ephraim Suhir

Description

Presenter

Dr. Ephraim Suhir

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The recently suggested probabilistic design for reliability (PDfR) concept in electronics and photonics (EP) is based on 1) highly focused and highly cost-effective failure oriented accelerated testing (FOAT), aimed at understanding the physics of the anticipated failures and at quantifying, on the probabilistic basis, the outcome of FOAT conducted for the most vulnerable element(s) of the product of interest for its most likely applications and the most meaningful combination of possible stressors (stimuli); 2) simple and physically meaningful predictive modeling (PM), both analytical and computer-aided, aimed at bridging the gap between the FOAT data and the most likely operation conditions; and 3) subsequent FOAT-and-PM-based sensitivity analyses (SA) using the methodologies and algorithms developed as by-products at the two previous steps. The PDfR concept proceeds from the recognition that nothing is perfect and that the difference between a highly reliable and an insufficiently reliable product is “merely” in the level of the probability of its failure. If this probability, evaluated for the anticipated loading conditions and the given time in operation, is not acceptable, SA can be effectively employed to determine what could/should be changed to improve the situation. The PDfR analysis enables one also to check if the product is not over-engineered, i.e., is not superfluously robust. If it is, it might be too costly. The operational reliability cannot be low, but it does not have to be higher than necessary either. It has to be adequate for the given product and application. When reliability and cost-effectiveness are imperative, ability to optimize reliability is a must, and no optimization is possible if reliability is not quantified. It is shown also that the optimization of the total cost associated with creating a product with an adequate (high enough) reliability and acceptable (low enough) cost can be interpreted in terms of the adequate level of the availability criterion. The major PDfR concepts are illustrated by practical examples. We elaborate on the roles and interaction of analytical (mathematical) and computer-aided (simulation) modeling. It is shown also how the recently suggested powerful and flexible Boltzmann-Arrhenius-Zhurkov (BAZ) model and particularly its multi-parametric extension could be successfully employed to predict, quantify and assure operational reliability. The model can be effectively used to analyze and design EP products with the predicted, quantified, assured, and, if appropriate and cost-effective, even maintained and specified probability of operational failure. It is concluded that these concepts and methodologies can be accepted as an effective means for the evaluation of the operational reliability of EP materials and products, and that the next generation of qualification testing (QT) specifications and practices for such products could be viewed and conducted as a quasi-FOAT that adequately replicates the initial non-destructive segment of the previously conducted comprehensive full-scale FOAT.
Bio:

Ephraim Suhir is Foreign Full Member of the National Academy of Engineering, Ukraine (he was born in that country); IEEE Life Fellow and Fellow of several leading professional societies. He has authored about 400 publications (patents, technical papers, book chapters, books), presented numerous keynote and invited talks worldwide, and received many professional awards, including 1996 Bell Labs Distinguished Member of Technical Staff Award for developing effective methods for predicting the reliability of complex structures used in AT&T and Lucent Technologies products; 2004 ASME Worcester Read Warner Medal for outstanding contributions to the permanent literature of engineering. Ephraim is the third “Russian American”, after S. Timoshenko and I. Sikorsky, who received this prestigious award, and 2017 IEEE CPMT Exceptional Achievement award for the development of numerous probabilistic design concepts that enable effective and rapid assessment of the probability of failure of electronic products.

Event Recording

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